The ten% US tariffs imposed on Ghana will pose a low danger to Ghana’s commerce surplus.
“Within the first 9 months of 2025, we predict the tariff influence may very well be partly mitigated by the duty-free export of non-oil items to the US market below the African Progress and Alternative Act (AGOA), which is able to expire in September 2025”, IC Insights talked about in its evaluation of World Commerce Tremors.
Nevertheless, it famous that solely about 26.0% of Ghana’s export worth to the US is roofed below the AGOA whereas majority of exports are the same old main commodities, which accounted for 85.1% of whole exports in 2024.
Consequently, it foresees a possible uptick in danger to Ghana’s commerce surplus, ranging between low and reasonable danger, particularly because the Ghanaian authorities search to revive cocoa and crude oil output.
It nevertheless, warned {that a} possible softening of demand in key export markets will weigh on Ghana’s commerce stability.
Ghana’s high 5 export locations in 2024 included the United Arab Emirates (20.4%), Switzerland (20.2%), South Africa (12.2%), China (7.3%), and India (6.7%). These markets accounted for two-thirds of Ghana’s whole export income.
IC Insights mentioned the persistently robust demand circumstances in these economies might be required to help Ghana’s sturdy commerce surplus, which stood at 6.0% of Gross Home Product in 2024.
“Our overview of the US reciprocal tariff construction signifies vital US commerce boundaries towards Ghana’s key export markets, which may weaken funding and combination demand in these economies. Particularly, China’s exports to the US will entice 54.0% tariff, Switzerland (and different EU markets) will entice 20.0%.
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