A JoyNews Analysis Advisory Be aware | Dispatch 1
Ghana is again on the radar of world buyers. For the primary time since defaulting on its debt in 2022, all three main credit standing companies—Moody’s, S&P, and now Fitch—have revised the nation’s rankings upward. Fitch’s newest transfer, lifting Ghana from ‘Restricted Default’ to B- with a Secure Outlook, indicators renewed optimism concerning the nation’s financial path.
However let’s be clear: this isn’t a free move to return to the Eurobond market. If something, it’s a flashing yellow gentle: proceed with excessive warning.
The improve affirms Ghana’s progress since its 2022–2023 debt disaster when ballooning deficits, crippling curiosity funds, and unsustainable borrowing culminated in a historic default and painful debt restructuring below each the Home and Exterior Debt Change Programme. Inflation has dropped considerably, worldwide reserves have rebounded to over $10 billion, and the cedi has appreciated greater than 40% year-to-date. Fitch’s confidence stems from these improved fundamentals and tighter fiscal self-discipline.
Nevertheless, in line with Isaac Kofi Agyei, Lead Analyst at JoyNews Analysis, the improve is a sign of progress, not a inexperienced gentle to re-enter world capital markets. “Ghana’s macroeconomic positive factors stay fragile and unconsolidated,” he cautions.
“A untimely return to Eurobond issuance might backfire and erode the hard-won positive factors made up to now.” As a substitute, Agyei recommends that Ghana wait till at the least 2027 when debt service obligations resume in full and reforms are extra deeply entrenched.
This view is echoed by Caleb Wuninti Ziblim, who argues for a stepwise return, beginning with a re-engagement within the home bond market.
“The federal government ought to take a look at investor confidence domestically first. If that proves profitable, it might think about worldwide borrowing within the subsequent 12 to 24 months,” he suggests.
Ziblim additionally warns that Eurobond charges might stay prohibitively excessive within the quick time period, given lingering investor skepticism and Ghana’s still-recovering fiscal credibility.
The home market could provide a better-proving floor. Based on Anthony Manu, the federal government is already transferring to make Treasury payments much less enticing to buyers by pushing charges down and rejecting overpriced bids.
“That is an effort to revive confidence and deepen the native debt market,” he explains. Nevertheless, Manu stresses that this effort have to be matched with transparency, a reputable borrowing plan, and sustained fiscal self-discipline to keep away from a repeat of the 2022 collapse.
Certainly, belief stays fragile. Many native buyers are nonetheless reeling from the DDEP’s impression. “Investor sentiment is slowly bettering,” notes Jason Dei, “however the trauma of bond haircuts hasn’t light. Ghana must consolidate these fragile positive factors earlier than searching for contemporary funding on costly exterior markets.” Dei recommends a phased return that begins with solidifying home positive factors all through 2025, adopted by a cautious take a look at of the Eurobond market by late 2026 if macroeconomic stability holds.
Liquidity pressures stay a key vulnerability. As Maxwell Kwasi Aklorbortu factors out, curiosity funds are consuming over 1 / 4 of presidency income, and DDEP coupon funds are set to rise to 9.1% in 2025. “Ghana can’t afford one other fiscal misstep,” he warns. “The federal government should aggressively handle to spend and broaden its tax base to guard capital funding and social safety programmes.”
The Street Forward: Persistence, Prudence, and Coverage Credibility
Whereas Ghana’s improved credit score rankings mirror commendable progress, all 5 JoyNews Analysis analysts agree that this could not set off hasty exterior borrowing. As a substitute, the federal government should concentrate on rebuilding the home bond market, assembly IMF programme benchmarks, and sustaining a reputable, clear fiscal path.
If these steps are adopted, a return to the Eurobond market someday between late 2026 and 2027 could also be possible—below higher phrases, with decrease refinancing threat and restored investor confidence. Till then, Ghana ought to proceed leveraging different financing instruments such because the Gold for Oil and Gold-backed Bond (GOLDBOD) initiatives, remittance flows, and strong cocoa exports to satisfy short-to-medium-term financing wants.
Finally, the credit score improve just isn’t a vacation spot—it’s a checkpoint. Ghana has regained some credibility, however should now earn long-term investor belief via constant efficiency, not simply guarantees. Because the analysts agree: warning, not celebration, should information Ghana’s subsequent steps.
Discover all 5 opinions under:
Isaac Kofi Agyei | Lead Information & Analysis Analyst, JoyNews Research
Ghana’s latest credit standing improve from “Restricted Default” to B- with a steady outlook by Fitch marks a major milestone in its financial restoration journey. It sends a powerful sign of bettering confidence within the nation’s fiscal administration and reform agenda. Nevertheless, regardless of this constructive momentum, the trail again to the worldwide capital markets might not be as green-lit because it seems.
After greater than three years of being shut out of the Eurobond market, it’s essential for Ghana to method its return with warning. Whereas macroeconomic indicators recommend the nation is on a constructive trajectory, lots of the positive factors stay fragile and unconsolidated.
The fiscal house created by the debt moratorium and important haircuts below the debt rework has provided Ghana a short lived reprieve. However the actual take a look at lies forward. When bilateral debt repayments resume in full after the moratorium ends in 2026, Ghana should exhibit that it might maintain its financial momentum with out triggering one other disaster.
The IMF’s most up-to-date evaluation means that 2027, a yr after the present programme concludes, might be the earliest lifelike window for Ghana to faucet into the Eurobond market. This timeline permits room to completely consolidate reforms and construct investor confidence.
Furthermore, with authorities but to renew the issuance of native forex bonds, any untimely transfer to the worldwide market could backfire. Buyers might be intently watching Ghana’s potential to mobilize home assets and maintain income efficiency earlier than committing to long-term lending.
As a substitute of speeding, Ghana should proceed to leverage different financing channels—together with the GOLDBOD initiative, improved remittance inflows, robust cocoa revenues, and stabilized reserves—to help its short- to medium-term financing wants.
In abstract, whereas the credit score improve is a constructive growth, Ghana’s greatest technique is to attend till at the least 2027 earlier than contemplating Eurobond issuance. By then, the nation would have had time to consolidate reforms, normalize home financing operations, and reinforce investor confidence—making certain a stronger, extra sustainable return to the capital markets.
Anthony Manu | Information & Analysis Analyst, JoyNews Analysis
Ghana’s latest credit standing improve by Fitch, from Restricted Default (RD) to B- with a Secure Outlook represents a major step ahead within the nation’s financial restoration. Comparable upgrades by Moody’s and S&P additional affirms the progress being made. These revisions mirror bettering macroeconomic fundamentals, tighter fiscal administration, and renewed investor confidence in reforms below the IMF-supported programme. Nevertheless, whereas the upgrades are encouraging, they shouldn’t be misconstrued as a inexperienced gentle for re-entry into the worldwide capital markets, particularly the Eurobond house.
The improve, introduced in June 2025, is underpinned by clear positive factors. Inflation has declined from 54.1% in December 2022 to 18.4% in Could 2025. Gross worldwide reserves have elevated by greater than 70%, reaching $10.67 billion, offering 4.7 months of import cowl. The cedi has rebounded impressively, appreciating over 40% year-to-date. Public debt has dropped from 77.5% of GDP to 55%, and enterprise confidence has surged, with the index rising from 75.7 in 2022 to 102.2 this yr.
These will not be beauty wins. They’re the results of robust structural reforms—debt restructuring, fiscal tightening, and financial self-discipline—painful, however crucial. With the home bond market practically crippled by the 2022–2023 Home Debt Change Programme (DDEP), the Treasury invoice market turned Ghana’s emergency lifeline. Now, with investor urge for food slowly returning, authorities is intentionally rejecting overpriced bids to drive charges down and restore market confidence.
But, regardless of these achievements, the query stays: is Ghana able to re-enter the worldwide capital market? The reply is not any! Ghana is able to rebuild its presence within the home bond market, the place it might handle threat, sign coverage credibility, and lengthen its debt profile. However returning to the Eurobond market now can be untimely and harmful.
The Eurobond market presents a unique set of dangers. Reminiscences of the 2022–2023 default are nonetheless contemporary, and regardless of macroeconomic positive factors, world buyers proceed to view Ghana’s sovereign threat as excessive. A untimely return would come at a value, doubtlessly double-digit rates of interest that would unravel the very stability the nation has labored arduous to rebuild.
The IMF shares this warning. Its projections present no Eurobond issuance earlier than 2027, with the earliest anticipated re-engagement with industrial and bilateral collectors not till 2026. That message is obvious: whereas the trail is bettering, confidence from worldwide lenders just isn’t but robust sufficient to justify exterior borrowing.
A B- score remains to be under funding grade. It indicators progress, but additionally threat. Ghana’s restoration remains to be in its early levels: encouraging, however fragile. The main focus now have to be on deepening home reforms, strengthening the native bond market, and constructing a sustained observe document of fiscal self-discipline. The Eurobond market will solely welcome Ghana again when the story isn’t just about reform, however consistency.
Briefly, the Fitch improve just isn’t a inexperienced gentle for re-entry into world markets. It’s a nod of approval for the course taken, not the ultimate vacation spot reached. Ghana should proceed to consolidate its positive factors, rebuild belief methodically, and resist the temptation of speeding again right into a market that would punish it with excessive prices. Earlier than we step again onto the worldwide stage, we should first end the work from home.
Caleb Wuninti Ziblim | Information & Analysis Analyst, JoyNews Analysis
Three years after Ghana’s default, all three main credit standing companies have now lifted their rankings — Moody’s in October 2024, S&P in Could 2025, and now Fitch. The triple improve has sparked a query: is Ghana able to borrow once more?
Quick reply: Not simply but — at the least not externally. The federal government ought to first reenter the native bond market step by step. If that proves profitable, a return to the worldwide market might comply with in a yr or two.
International buyers stay cautious. If Ghana had been to subject Eurobonds now, it might possible face steep rates of interest which might be considerably above historic averages. Ghana’s fiscal credibility remains to be being rebuilt. International collectors need to see sustained self-discipline, predictable coverage, and proof that repayments gained’t be delayed or restructured once more. A brand new NDC administration, barely six months into the job, hasn’t but had time to show that.
The home bond market, nevertheless, appears to be like extra promising.
The Finance Ministry has quietly made Treasury payments much less enticing by driving charges down from over 25% to round 14%, and even rejecting bids regardless of undersubscribed auctions. That’s left extra liquidity searching for higher returns.
With the cedi remarkably steady and gold now not providing speculative positive factors from forex depreciation, consideration is shifting to medium-term bonds.
That is a gap. The federal government ought to take a look at the waters with quick to medium-term devices (2-to-3-year maturities), reasonably priced.
Nonetheless, the dangers are actual. Banks are recovering from losses within the Home Debt Change Programme. Pension funds stay cautious. Insurance coverage companies and asset managers are cautious of locking into longer-term bonds, fearing potential losses if rates of interest shift.
To succeed, the federal government should strike the precise stability by providing yields excessive sufficient to draw buyers with out undermining future fiscal house. Simply as essential is coverage readability: a reputable borrowing plan, adherence to the revised Medium-Time period Debt Technique, and clear indicators on fiscal targets.
If that basis holds and Ghana sticks to its restructured debt obligations, exterior reentry might comply with in 12 to 24 months. This could not solely provide a less expensive strategy to finance the finances and appeal to overseas change to help the cedi, but additionally unlock funding for much-needed infrastructure.
Nevertheless it have to be approached strategically.
Ghana can not afford one other 2022! Unsustainable debt and financial opacity crushed confidence and harm livelihoods. To keep away from repeating that mistake, the federal government should slowly ease off short-term T-bill reliance, present fiscal restraint, and rebuild belief with each native and overseas buyers.
Jason Dei | Information & Analysis Analyst, JoyNews Analysis
Ghana’s credit standing has been upgraded from ‘RD’ (Restricted Default) to ‘B-’ with a steady outlook, a major turnaround from the 2022–2023 DDEP period. This follows related actions by Moody’s (CAA2) and S&P (CCC+), signalling a coordinated uptick in investor sentiment towards Ghana’s economic system.
This marks the primary time for the reason that home debt restructuring started that every one three main score companies have revised Ghana’s outlook positively. President Mahama’s inaugural pledge that “Ghana is open for enterprise” seems to be materializing below tighter macro administration.
This improve indicators renewed confidence in Ghana’s fiscal trajectory, largely influenced by progress within the ongoing debt restructuring and regular engagement with the IMF. It additionally means that world credit score watchers now acknowledge the federal government’s improved macroeconomic administration, particularly within the wake of the DDEP’s painful restructuring course of. However, whereas the improve seems promising on paper, it shouldn’t overshadow the truth that many native buyers are nonetheless recovering from extreme losses. The trauma of the bond haircut period has not but light, and investor belief—each home and overseas—stays fragile.
Furthermore, the BoG’s latest financial posture reinforces the necessity for warning. The discount in T-bill charges from 30% in January 2025 to about 14% displays a deliberate effort to rein in borrowing and cut back fiscal strain. On the similar time, the rejection of latest Treasury invoice bids means that authorities is prioritizing stability over fast fixes. This aligns with the broader financial posture of cautious optimism. Due to this fact, whereas the score improve creates a gap, it additionally raises the stakes—any misstep in market timing or fiscal administration might simply unravel the credibility Ghana is slowly regaining.
In gentle of the above, a gradual method to re-entering worldwide capital markets is very advisable. Reasonably than speeding to subject Eurobonds, authorities ought to first rebuild confidence domestically via well-structured bond auctions and clear debt communication. The home bond market can function a proving floor to check investor urge for food and sign self-discipline to worldwide markets. On this transitional part, Ghana ought to keep centered on assembly IMF program benchmarks and making certain that debt stays on a sustainable path.
Moreover, the present momentum ought to be used to consolidate positive factors slightly than stretch fiscal house. A full re-entry into the worldwide capital market ought to be thought of in 2026, solely after the debt restructuring is totally accomplished and the economic system exhibits resilience via a number of quarters. This phased technique will cut back refinancing threat and forestall the economic system from being uncovered to sudden shocks or predatory borrowing phrases. Finally, credibility have to be earned, not assumed — and this score improve is barely the start.
Fitch’s improve is a powerful vote of confidence and Ghana should now match investor optimism with self-discipline. A gradual, risk-conscious return to markets — guided by home stability and credible reforms — is the most secure path ahead. To consolidate positive factors all through 2025, deepen home investor confidence, and solely think about a full re-entry into the capital markets in 2026, after the debt restructuring is totally accomplished and macroeconomic stability is firmly anchored.
Maxwell Kwasi Aklorbortu | Information & Analysis Analyst, JoyNews Analysis
Fitch’s improve to ‘B-’ is a transparent sign that Ghana is regaining market confidence. However buyers might be watching one factor intently—liquidity. With curiosity funds consuming over 1 / 4 of income and the Home Debt Change Programme (DDEP) coupons leaping to 9.1% in 2025, Ghana can not afford to slide on fiscal self-discipline. The federal government should keep aggressive on expenditure management and broaden its income base to release house for capital funding and social spending.
The rapid aim ought to be to reopen the home bond market by the primary quarter of 2026, backed by a reputable 2025 mid-year finances assessment. If inflation drops and investor sentiment improves simply as Fitch expects then Ghana might take a look at worldwide markets cautiously by late 2026 or early 2027, possible via a partial Eurobond issuance or a diaspora-targeted instrument. The secret’s to not rush, however to construct belief with each step.
DISCLAIMER: The Views, Feedback, Opinions, Contributions and Statements made by Readers and Contributors on this platform don’t essentially symbolize the views or coverage of Multimedia Group Restricted.
DISCLAIMER: The Views, Feedback, Opinions, Contributions and Statements made by Readers and Contributors on this platform don’t essentially symbolize the views or coverage of Multimedia Group Restricted.
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