The Financial institution of Ghana has scaled again its dimension and frequency of international change intervention within the foreign exchange market.
The Central Financial institution, throughout the second quarter of 2025, intervened closely within the foreign exchange market (over US$2.0 billion), a scenario that the Worldwide Financial Fund expressed concern about and urged the regulator to proceed with warning.
As of twenty ninth July, 2025, the full international change ahead gross sales in July 2025 stood at US$822.8 million, 53.6% decrease than June 2025. The Financial institution of Ghana was absent from the market on twenty fifth and twenty ninth July 2025, the primary absence since April.
This resulted in a tighter foreign exchange provide with a cumulative US greenback Ghana cedi depreciation of 1.7% post-IMF Board approval.
IC Analysis, a number one monetary financial analysis stated, “In view of the necessity to avert a protracted over-valued FX [foreign exchange] price and shut the arbitrage hole out there, we count on the BOG [Bank of Ghana] to proceed the gradual softening of its FX market presence”.
It believes this can possible culminate in a non-disruptive uptick within the interbank US greenback Ghana cedi price to between GH¢10.45 and GH¢11.45 to a greenback (midpoint: GH¢10.95/USD) by the tip of 2025.
In the meantime, IC Analysis says the Actual Efficient Trade Price (REER) appreciation suggests a probable corrective depreciation forward, albeit modest.
Accordingly, the sharp appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi within the first half of 2025 has created a number of international change charges, with the interbank degree at mid-GH¢10/US greenback, whereas the retail price was quoted round GH¢12.0/US greenback.
“Our evaluation of Ghana’s FX [foreign exchange] pattern suggests a pointy appreciation of the actual change price because the REER index declined sharply by 31.3% in six months of 2025 to 92.7 share factors in June 2025”.
The sharp appreciation of the actual change price started in April 2025 and deepened within the subsequent two months to June 2025, aligning with the appreciation of the nominal bilateral foreign exchange charges.
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