Inflation is anticipated to marginally decline in August 2025 as a consequence of unfavourable base results, IC Analysis, the analysis arm of IC Securities, has revealed.
In response to the main analysis agency, it anticipates a modest contraction within the Client Value Index stage for August 2025 to replicate the cheaper price impact of meals crop provide.
Nevertheless, it added that the probably contraction within the August 2025 Client Value Index (CPI) stage might be inadequate to outweigh the 1.6 share factors contraction posted in August 2024.
This can create an unfavourable base drift with upside threat to the August 2025 annual inflation print.
“Nonetheless, we imagine that power costs will probably keep decrease on a year-on-year foundation with the cedi features supporting to dampen the upside threat. Combining the upside and draw back arguments, we forecast a 30-basis-point uptick in annual inflation to 12.4% in August 2025 however with a month-on-month projected deflation of 0.5%”.
2025 Finish-Inflation Forecast
In the meantime, IC Securities has said its end-2025 forecast seems extra bullish although it’s cautious forward of the fourth quarter utility tariff hike.
“The sharper-than-expected disinflation in July 2025 has markedly improved our up to date end-2025 midpoint forecast to 10.5% (versus 11.3% prior)”, it stated.
It added “Given the uncertainty across the potential magnitude of hike in utility tariffs in 4Q2025 [quarter 4, 2025] and warning on how the response variables will probably behave, we reiterate our view that there’s a sturdy risk for end-2025 inflation to hit the mid-9.0% space”.
Nevertheless, it retained its revised forecast at 11.3% ±1.0 share factors however leans towards the decrease finish of 10.3%, pending the hike in utility tariff.
Ghana’s annual headline CPI inflation declined sharply by 160 foundation factors to 12.1% in July 2025 in comparison with our forecast decline to 12.7% (12.4%).
The disinflation development represents the seventh successive decline in annual inflation with a cumulative drop of 11.7 share factors in seventh months of 2025 to the bottom stage since October 2021.
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